Match 1 — Argentina vs Austria (Group J, 17:00 UTC)
Group J standings after Matchday 1
Both sides opened with convincing victories. Argentina dispatched Algeria 3-0, while Austria overcame Jordan 3-1. Each team sits on three points with strong goal differences, making this the de facto contest for first place in the group — and the more favourable Round-of-32 draw path that comes with finishing top.
Team form and tournament data
Argentina have scored seven goals across two competitive fixtures in the current World Cup cycle, conceding just once — an average of 3.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match. Austria's numbers are only marginally behind: six goals scored and one conceded, for averages of 3.0 and 0.5 respectively. On paper, two attack-minded sides meet in a match where both have realistic ambitions of taking all three points.
1X2 odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Argentina (1) | Draw (X) | Austria (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.48 | 4.20 | 7.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 4.34 | 7.47 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.20 | 7.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.36 | 7.23 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| Unibet | 1.46 | 4.20 | 8.00 |
Odds sourced via Sportmonks on 22 June 2026. Lines may have moved since publication.
Prediction model breakdown
The Sportmonks prediction model assigns a 41.65% probability to an Argentina win, 24.55% to the draw, and 33.80% to an Austria victory. Those figures diverge significantly from the market-implied probabilities. At average odds of around 1.49, the bookmaker market implies roughly a 67% chance of Argentina winning — nearly double the model's estimate.
Austria at 33.80% model-probability versus approximately 13% implied by the 7.30 average price represents a substantial positive expected-value window, if the model proves accurate. The draw at 24.55% model-probability versus roughly 24% implied is approximately fairly priced across the board.
Additional markets
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: The model gives 56.15% to Over 2.5, consistent with both teams' attacking output in Matchday 1.
- Both Teams to Score: BTTS Yes is priced around 2.05 (bet365) with a model probability of 58.80% — a potential value angle given the implied probability of approximately 49%.
- Most likely correct scores: 1-1 (11.19%), 2-1 to Argentina (8.61%), 1-0 to Argentina (8.22%).
Match 2 — France vs Iraq (Group I, 21:00 UTC)
Group I standings after Matchday 1
France began their campaign with a controlled 3-1 win over Senegal, while Iraq were overwhelmed by Norway in a 1-4 defeat. France sit top on goal difference, with Norway second. Iraq need a result here to keep any realistic qualification hopes alive — but the odds suggest the market expects a comprehensive French victory.
Team form and tournament data
France have scored five goals in their WC 2026 fixtures so far, conceding two, for averages of 2.5 scored and 1.0 conceded per match. Iraq's available data from recent competitive fixtures shows two goals scored and one conceded. The talent and depth gap between the two squads is reflected clearly in the pricing the bookmakers publish for this fixture.
1X2 odds comparison
| Bookmaker | France (1) | Draw (X) | Iraq (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.07 | 11.00 | 29.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.13 | 10.30 | 30.00 |
| Betfair | 1.07 | 12.00 | 41.00 |
| 10Bet | 1.09 | 9.25 | 24.00 |
| 888Sport | 1.08 | 10.00 | 23.00 |
Odds sourced via Sportmonks on 22 June 2026. Lines may have moved since publication.
Prediction model breakdown
The model assigns a 73.05% probability to a France win, 18.65% to the draw, and 8.32% to an Iraq victory. At average odds of approximately 1.09, the implied market probability for France is around 92% — significantly higher than the model's 73%. This gap is notable: the model sees a roughly 27% combined chance of Iraq avoiding defeat, while the market prices that scenario at approximately 8%.
Whether that 19-percentage-point gap represents genuine value on the draw or Iraq, or reflects model uncertainty with limited Iraq data, is an open question. World Cup history contains numerous examples of heavy favourites drawing against unfancied opponents in group stages. The compressed scoreline predictions — 1-0 at 15.8% and 2-0 at 15.6% — suggest a tighter match than the 1X2 headline odds imply.
Additional markets
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: Under 2.5 is narrowly favoured at 52.30% per the model, despite France's three-goal Matchday-1 outing. This aligns with the low-scoring correct-score predictions.
- Both Teams to Score: BTTS No is strongly favoured at 64.00% model probability, priced at approximately 1.44 across books. The market and model are broadly aligned here — France's defence is expected to contain Iraq's attack.
- Most likely correct scores: 1-0 to France (15.8%), 2-0 to France (15.6%).
Betting value summary
Across the two fixtures, the data-driven value angles differ considerably:
- Argentina vs Austria: The model's win-probability split is far more balanced than the odds suggest. Austria's draw-or-win probability (combined 58.35% per the model) is priced by the market as roughly a 33% event. The BTTS Yes market at 2.05 with a 58.8% model probability is the clearest single-market value flag on the card.
- France vs Iraq: France's win at approximately 1.08 offers almost no margin. The model sees more vulnerability than the market does, but the Iraq draw at 10.00–12.00 is a high-variance play that the model assigns only 18.65% probability. Under 2.5 goals at close to even money aligns with the model's slight lean and may suit bettors looking for a lower-variance angle on this fixture.
For deeper reading on how to evaluate these value gaps, see the betting types reference and the bankroll-management guide. The live Argentina vs Austria and France vs Iraq match pages carry updated lineups and in-play data from kickoff onward.
Frequently asked questions
What time do Argentina vs Austria and France vs Iraq kick off on 22 June 2026?
Argentina vs Austria kicks off at 17:00 UTC (Group J, Matchday 2). France vs Iraq follows at 21:00 UTC (Group I, Matchday 2).
What are the best odds for Argentina vs Austria?
At the time of writing, the best available price for Argentina is 1.54 (1xBet), for the draw 4.36 (Pinnacle), and for Austria 8.00 (Unibet). Compare lines across multiple reviewed bookmakers before placing any wager.
Can Iraq beat France at the 2026 World Cup?
The prediction model assigns an 8.32% probability to an Iraq victory, with the draw at 18.65%. While France are overwhelming favourites, World Cup group stages have produced significant upsets before. Iraq's odds of 23.00–41.00 reflect the long-shot nature of this outcome.
Which of these two matches is more likely to see Over 2.5 goals?
Argentina vs Austria has a 56.15% model probability for Over 2.5, compared to 47.70% for France vs Iraq. The Group J match, featuring two teams that each scored three or more goals on Matchday 1, profiles as the more likely high-scoring fixture of the two.
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By Daniel Park · Updated