Colombia vs Congo DR — Group K, 24 June 02:00 UTC
Group K standings after Matchday 1
Colombia lead on three points after dismantling Uzbekistan 3-1. Portugal and Congo DR share one point apiece from their 1-1 draw. A win for Colombia here would virtually guarantee their passage to the Round of 32, while Congo DR need at least a draw to keep their campaign alive.
1X2 odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Colombia (1) | Draw (X) | Congo DR (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill | 1.50 | 3.90 | 6.50 |
| Unibet | 1.50 | 4.00 | 7.50 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.50 | 4.20 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.10 | 6.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.46 | 4.20 | 7.40 |
| MelBet | 1.49 | 4.10 | 7.10 |
Odds sourced via Sportmonks on 23 June 2026. Lines may have moved since publication.
Prediction model breakdown
The model gives Colombia 53.10%, the draw at 25.75%, and Congo DR at 21.15%. At average odds of ~1.49, the market implies roughly 67% for a Colombia win — noticeably higher than the model's 53.10%. This suggests Colombia may be slightly overvalued by the market.
The draw at 25.75% model probability versus ~24% implied (odds ~4.10) is roughly fairly priced. Congo DR at 21.15% versus ~15% implied (odds ~6.80) could be a small value spot.
Additional markets
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: The model gives only 42.90% to Over 2.5 — this could be a tighter contest than Colombia's opener.
- Both Teams to Score: BTTS Yes at 45.25% — Unibet BTTS Yes at 2.28 (~44% implied), close to model value.
- Most likely correct scores: 1-0 to Colombia (13.97%), 1-1 (12.05%), 2-0 to Colombia (10.72%).
By Daniel Park · Updated