England vs Ghana — Group L, 23 June 20:00 UTC
Group L standings after Matchday 1
England and Ghana both won their openers and sit on three points apiece. England's emphatic 4-2 win over Croatia demonstrated real attacking firepower, while Ghana's disciplined 1-0 victory over Panama was more measured. This match could decide first place in the group.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | England | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Ghana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | +1 | 3 |
| 3 | Panama | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 4 | Croatia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
1X2 odds comparison
| Bookmaker | England (1) | Draw (X) | Ghana (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 1.20 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Betfair | 1.20 | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.50 | 13.00 |
| CloudBet | 1.20 | 6.70 | 14.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.21 | 6.50 | 16.25 |
Odds sourced via Sportmonks on 23 June 2026. Lines may have moved since publication.
Prediction model breakdown
The model gives England a commanding 69.85% win probability, the draw at 19.40%, and Ghana at just 10.76%. The market at average odds ~1.20 implies approximately 83% for England — again higher than the model's 69.85%.
The draw at 19.40% model probability compared to ~15% market-implied (odds ~6.80) represents a moderate value gap. Ghana at 10.76% versus ~7% implied by odds around 14.00 also diverges, though the absolute probabilities are small in either case.
Additional markets
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: The model gives 49.60% to Over 2.5 — essentially a coin flip, despite England scoring four in their opener.
- Both Teams to Score: BTTS Yes at 40.50% — 10Bet prices BTTS Yes at 2.25 (~44% implied), suggesting roughly fair value.
- Most likely correct scores: Other England win (15.15%), 1-0 to England (14.11%), 2-0 to England (14.11%).
By Daniel Park · Updated