Norway vs Senegal — Group I, 23 June 00:00 UTC
Group I standings entering Matchday 2
France lead the group on six points after wins over Senegal (3-1) and Iraq (3-0). Norway are second on three points following their emphatic 4-1 victory over Iraq. Senegal and Iraq each have zero points — both need to win here to have any realistic chance of progressing.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 6 |
| 2 | Norway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | +3 | 3 |
| 3 | Senegal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 | Iraq | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 |
1X2 odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Norway (1) | Draw (X) | Senegal (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.25 | 3.51 | 3.42 |
| CloudBet | 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.35 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| Coral | 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.30 |
| 888Sport | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.20 |
| Cashpoint | 2.17 | 3.50 | 3.35 |
| MansionBet | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
Odds sourced via Sportmonks on 23 June 2026. Lines may have moved since publication.
Prediction model breakdown
The Sportmonks prediction model gives Norway a 41.80% chance of winning, the draw at 24.55%, and Senegal at 33.65%. At average odds of around 2.18, the market implies roughly a 46% chance of a Norway win — slightly above the model's estimate of 41.80%.
Senegal at 33.65% model-probability versus the ~30% implied by odds around 3.30 suggests the market roughly agrees with the model on the away win.
Additional markets
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: The model gives 56.25% to Over 2.5, reflecting both teams' opening match scorelines (4-1 for Norway, 1-3 for Senegal).
- Both Teams to Score: BTTS Yes at 58.95% model probability — Betfair price BTTS Yes at 1.67, implying ~60%, which lines up closely.
- Most likely correct scores: 1-1 (11.22%), 2-1 to Norway (8.73%), 1-0 to Norway (8.40%).
By Daniel Park · Updated