Portugal vs Uzbekistan — Group K, 23 June 17:00 UTC
Group K standings after Matchday 1
Colombia lead the group on three points after beating Uzbekistan 3-1. Portugal are second with one point from their 1-1 draw with Congo DR. Congo DR also have one point, while Uzbekistan trail on zero. A win here would put Portugal in a strong position for the Round of 32.
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Colombia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 3 |
| 2 | Portugal | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | Congo DR | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Uzbekistan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 |
1X2 odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Portugal (1) | Draw (X) | Uzbekistan (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 1.18 | 7.66 | 17.70 |
| bwin | 1.20 | 7.25 | 14.00 |
| Coral | 1.20 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| Ladbrokes | 1.20 | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| MelBet | 1.15 | 7.50 | 19.00 |
Odds sourced via Sportmonks on 23 June 2026. Lines may have moved since publication.
Prediction model breakdown
The model assigns Portugal a dominant 65.95% win probability, with the draw at 21.80% and Uzbekistan at just 12.24%. At average odds of around 1.19, the market implies approximately 84% for a Portugal win — significantly higher than the model's 65.95%.
This gap means the draw at 21.80% model probability versus ~14% market-implied (odds ~7.00) could offer value. Uzbekistan at 12.24% versus ~6% implied by odds around 15.00 also diverges, though backing heavy underdogs in one-off matches carries substantial variance.
Additional markets
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: The model gives only 45.15% to Over 2.5 — slightly under, consistent with Portugal's low-scoring opener.
- Both Teams to Score: BTTS Yes at just 39.55% model probability — 888Sport prices BTTS Yes at 2.30 (~43% implied).
- Most likely correct scores: 1-0 to Portugal (15.84%), 2-0 to Portugal (14.09%), other Portugal win (11.76%).
By Daniel Park · Updated