Scotland vs Brazil — Group C, 24 June 22:00 UTC
Group C context
Scotland's Matchday 2 defeat to Morocco (0-1) means they sit on three points and must avoid defeat against Brazil to have a strong chance of qualifying — either as runners-up or as one of the best third-placed teams. Brazil bounced back from their 1-1 draw with Morocco by crushing Haiti 3-0, and a win here would seal top spot if Morocco also win their match.
1X2 odds comparison
| Bookmaker | Scotland (1) | Draw (X) | Brazil (2) |
|---|---|---|---|
| bwin | 8.25 | 4.80 | 1.38 |
| bet365 | 8.00 | 5.00 | 1.36 |
| Ladbrokes | 8.00 | 4.80 | 1.36 |
| Unibet | 8.50 | 5.40 | 1.35 |
| Coral | 8.00 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
Odds sourced via Sportmonks on 23 June 2026. Lines may have moved since publication.
Prediction model breakdown
The model gives Scotland 20.00%, the draw at 24.30%, and Brazil at 55.70%. Brazil are strong favourites at ~1.37 average odds (implied ~73%), which is higher than the model's 55.70%. This gap could make the draw at 24.30% versus ~21% implied (odds ~4.95) a slight value play.
Scotland at 20.00% versus ~12% implied by odds around 8.15 also diverges — the model sees Scotland as having a meaningfully better chance than the market suggests.
Additional markets
- Over/Under 2.5 goals: The model gives 46.90% to Over 2.5 — suggesting a tighter match than the odds might indicate.
- Both Teams to Score: BTTS Yes at 47.50% — Betfair BTTS Yes at 2.45 (~41% implied) could offer value at the model rate.
- Most likely correct scores: 0-1 to Brazil (13.05%), 1-1 (11.41%), 0-2 to Brazil (10.85%).
By Daniel Park · Updated